Buying the Right TV

This is a new blog.

I've been looking into buying
the right TV. One of the things
I'm most interested in is being
as future-proof as possible.

Being future-proof means avoiding
buying a TV that will soon be
obsolete. The old TV standard,
NTSC TV, lasted 60 years. If possible,
I would like to buy a new TV that will
also last a long time.

NTSC TV is the old TV standard that
was in practical existence from the
1940s on. When I say practical existence,
I mean consumers were actually out there
buying TVs based on the NTSC standard
from the late 1940s on.

In Europe, they went with another standard.
The standard there was called PAL. Both
PAL (Europe) and NTSC (United States) have
lasted a long long time.

Here's an article on NTSC:

NTSC

Here's an article on PAL:

PAL

The issue I'm concerned with right now is not
NTSC versus PAL. What is going to replace
these 2 old standards? That's the issue I
care about.

It appears that 1080p is going to replace
NTSC in the United States. Here's an article
that indicates this:

1080p LCD Sets Dominate the Market

Here's the source for the 1080p LCD article:

1080p LCD TVs Take Majority Market Share

Here's the original press release that describes
how 1080p is taking over the market:

In 2010
HD1080p Models Finally Top
the OVERALL LCDTV Category

Here's the great graphic in original form
that shows 1080p LCD TV taking over:

Original 1080P Taking-Over Graphic

Here's the research firm that all the above
information seems to come from:

Quixel Research

It appears to me that the mechanism by which 1080p is taking
over the market is a simple one. The key to a market take-over
is smaller screen sizes.

As the screen sizes for 1080p get smaller, 1080p pushes 720 pixel
out. So this is how 720 HD will die and disappear. As 1080p LCD
TV gets smaller and smaller, no one wants 720 HD anymore. According
to the report, the cost difference between a 1080p LCD TV and and a
720 pixel TV with the same screen diagonal (say 32 inch, for example) is
negligible. Therefore, as soon as 1080p becomes available for a given
screen diagonal measurement, it pushes 720 HD out of the picture (I know,
bad pun).

It's an interesting dynamic. I'm beginning to see how this market works.
All the pushing in the market comes from the top on down. The top-of-the-line
product pushes down into the bottom-of-the-line product.

This is how life works. You get a few people interested in something by
providing a great product or service. At first, only a very high end or
very specialized clientele is interested. Later the market broadens as
more and more people become interested.

You can use this principle to keep yourself in the middle of the river
when you go to buy something. It's probably a good idea not to be the
first person to own technology. Why? Because the longer you wait, the
more reliable and cheaper the technology.

With 1080p LCD TV, it is not too terribly hard to figure out just when
1080p will probably become the middle of the stream. Pick a screen size
that is most like the volume leader in terms of unit sales. For example,
say that a 32 inch diagonal TV plays that role.

First, determine if 32-inch-diagonal LCD TV is the middle of the market
in unit sales. If so, wait until 1080p models appears in the 32-inch-diagonal
LCD TV market. As soon as 1080p makes its appearance in 32 inch TVs at major
retailers, 1080p LCD TV is about to take over the 32-inch market.

It's an interesting dynamic where one after another diagonal screen measurement
is taken over by 1080p starting with the largest TVs and working on down.


Ed Abbott